Tornado outbreak sequence of May 19–26, 2024

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Tornado outbreak sequence of May 19–26, 2024
Meteorological history
DurationMay 19–26, 2024
Tornado outbreak
Tornadoes132+
Maximum ratingEF4 tornado
Highest windsTornadic – 175–185 mph (282–298 km/h) – Greenfield, Iowa EF4 on May 21
Overall effects
Fatalities19 (+7 non-tornadic)[1][2][3][4][5]
Injuries97+[6][7]
Areas affectedMidwestern and Southern United States

Part of the Tornadoes of 2024

A multi-day period of significant tornado activity is currently unfolding across the Midwestern United States and the Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes have been reported across large portions of the Central United States, including several strong tornadoes. Multiple Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) watches were issued across the sequence, including Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260 on the 19th,[8] Tornado Watch 277 on the 21st,[9] Tornado Watch 308 on the 25th.[10] and Tornado Watch 320 on the 26th.[11] Five fatalities have been confirmed with a large, violent EF4 tornado that went through Greenfield, Iowa on the 21st. Tornadic activity continued over the next several days, including a nocturnal outbreak that occurred during the overnight hours of May 25 into May 26. Seven fatalities were confirmed from a destructive tornado that struck Valley View, Texas while two more fatalities were confirmed from an EF3+ tornado that struck Claremore and Pryor, Oklahoma. Another fatality was confirmed from a tornado in Olvey, Arkansas and an additional tornadic death also occurred in Arkansas. Many other tornadoes occurred on the afternoon and evening of the 26th, including a very destructive, intense tornado, which prompted the issuance of 4 tornado emergencies across western Kentucky.[12]

Meteorological synopsis

The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 convective outlook for May 21, 2024, issued at 1300Z, indicating a moderate risk for severe weather over much of Iowa and nearby parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, and southeastern Minnesota.

May 19

On May 19, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlined a level 4/Moderate risk of severe weather across southwest to central Kansas, encompassed by a level 3/Enhanced risk that extended into northwestern Oklahoma as well. Across the highest risk area, forecasters warned of the potential for a developing derecho capable of producing damaging winds upwards of 100 mph (160 km/h).[13] By the early afternoon hours, a northwest-to-southeast-oriented dryline extended from eastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle, while a cold front laid across northern and central Kansas. Between these boundaries, dewpoints rose into the lower 60s °F and effective wind shear reached 50 kn (60 mph; 90 km/h), supportive of supercell thunderstorms that would likely evolve into a line of storms as a shortwave trough approached from the west.[14] Given the environment, the SPC issued a particularly dangerous situation severe thunderstorm watch across much of Kansas, northwestern Oklahoma, and the far northeastern Texas Panhandle.[15] An intense supercell developed in north-central Kansas, producing large hail in excess of 2 in (51 mm), tornadoes, and a wind gust to 71 kn (82 mph; 131 km/h) near Russell,[16] eventually growing upscale as additional convective clusters formed to the southwest.[17] In Oklahoma, an isolated intense supercell developed and tracked eastward toward the Oklahoma City metropolitan area as low-level wind shear began to increase.[18] Meanwhile, dual mesoscale convective vortices tracked across eastern Kansas,[19] contributing to widespread damaging wind reports—including multiple high wind gusts in excess of 65 kn (75 mph; 120 km/h)—as well as several tornadoes.[20] As the complexes continued into Missouri, they encountered more stable air, causing the severe threat to gradually diminish.[21]

May 20–21

The severe threat shifted northward on May 20 as the SPC issued a level 3/Enhanced risk across northeastern Colorado and southwestern Nebraska. Here, forecasters expected a mixture of supercells and clusters of storms to originate near the Palmer Divide. Although rich moisture waned with westward extent,[22] dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s °F were expected to spread northwestward from Kansas and into Colorado.[23] Thunderstorms developed in this area by the late afternoon hours, though their growth was stunted by marginal instability.[24] Several discrete supercells eventually evolved across northeastern Colorado and began to grow upscale while encountering a more moist and unstable environment to the east across western Nebraska.[25] The bowing line of storms traversed Nebraska and eventually Iowa through the pre-dawn and early morning hours of May 21, resulting in continued damaging wind gusts.[26][27]

On May 21, the SPC issued another Moderate risk for severe weather in the states of Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois, including a 15% risk for significant tornadoes.[28] Upper-air soundings observed steep lapse rates in the middle troposphere over parts of Kansas and Missouri on the morning of May 21. The SPC predicted that these conditions would spread into the primary severe weather risk area, overlapping with a moist airmass with dew points approaching 70 °F (21 °C) and leading to strong potential atmospheric instability.[29] That morning, an organized cluster of thunderstorms moved into Iowa after having produced severe wind gusts in central and eastern Nebraska. This line of storms continued across central and eastern Iowa just north of a warm front, presenting a continued threat for damaging wind gusts.[30] Additional storms began to develop along the border between Kansas and Nebraska ahead of an approaching trough. The SPC anticipated that the atmospheric environment over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa would become increasingly conducive for further organization of these storms into supercells.[31] A tornado watch was issued by the SPC for areas near and along the Nebraska–Iowa border region at 11:10 a.m. CDT in anticipation of these changes.[32] At 1:10 p.m. CDT, the SPC issued a tornado watch flagged as a particularly dangerous situation for much of Iowa and parts of surrounding states, including an 80% likelihood of a significant tornado occurring within the watch area.[33] Supercells were active over southwestern Iowa by the mid-afternoon, approaching an environment favorable for tornadogenesis leading into the Des Moines area.[34]

Multiple tornadoes were reported in Iowa, including a damaging tornado near Corning and in Greenfield, where multiple fatalities were reported.[35][7] Tornadoes were also reported in Minnesota and Wisconsin.[35]

May 22

On May 22, the SPC outlined a Enhanced risk extending from central Texas across southeastern Oklahoma, extreme northwestern Louisiana, and southwestern Arkansas.[36] In Texas, a cold front stretched from the Red River southwestward into the Permian Basin, with a surface trough just ahead of that front. Supercells were expected to evolve within a sheared and deeply unstable environment given effective wind shear of 60 kn (70 mph; 110 km/h) and mixed-layer CAPE of 3,000 J/kg. As such, very large hail was anticipated to be the main threat, although isolated tornadoes were possible too before storms grew upscale into one or more convective lines.[37] To the northeast, lines of storms tracked across Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee, with a primary risk of damaging winds and large hail.[38][39] Meanwhile, intense supercells developed across central Texas in a very unstable and deeply sheared environment, riding along outflow boundaries that enhanced the tornado threat.[40] A particularly intense tornado developed southwest of Sterling City. Ongoing storms across Texas eventually evolved into an intense mesoscale convective system moving across eastern portions of the state and into Louisiana through the late evening.[41]

May 23–24

On May 23, the SPC issued an Enhanced risk over central Nebraska to Western Iowa for the threat of damaging winds. Conditions weren't quite as favorable this day compared to others with dew points only expected to reach the upper 50's, creating conditions for high-base supercells, lowering the tornado potential. However, CAPE values were still able to reach 1000-3000 J/kg. Combined with shear reaching 45-55kts, conditions were favorable for severe weather.[42] storms initiated along a front over northwest Nebraska around 4pm CDT, though the line quickly dissipated with only a supercell able to maintain itself as it went around the corner of Colorado as it produced several tornadoes.[43] Eventually the line reformed over Southern Nebraska and began to produce damaging winds, growing to the height of the state at 1am CDT. Despite nighttime cooling, the line maintained itself and swept across all of Iowa bringing damaging winds up tp 85mph to the entire state and producing brief, weak tornadoes.[44]

Meanwhile in Texas and Oklahoma, a Slight Risk for all hazards was issued, though the tornado threat was seen as secondary to the more likely hail threat, with dew points in the low-70's and CAPE values around 3000 J/kg, but a supercellular storm mode.[42] Supercells initially developed over western Texas, though failed to sustain themselves, except for a cluster that sustained themselves on the TX/OK border.[43]

For May 24, the SPC initially issued a large Slight Risk from Southern Wisconsin to Central Texas, but in the 1300z Outlook upgraded northeast Illinois (for damaging winds) and a thin area of western/southern Oklahoma and northern Texas (for large hail) to an Enhanced Risk.[45] The line MCS from the previous night in Iowa continued into the late morning and produced a couple tornadoes over that area of Illinois. Following this, little tornado activity occurred during the day.[46] However, due to its long-lived hazard of damaging winds and long track length, the MCS was officially declared as a derecho by the Storm Prediction Center. [47]

May 25–26

On May 25, the SPC warned of an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across a level 4/Moderate risk area that encompassed much of Oklahoma and Kansas, as well as southwestern Missouri. In this region, forecasters expected the development of a few discrete supercells that would be capable of producing giant hail and strong to violent tornadoes. Across the northern portion of the risk, these supercells were forecast to evolve into a mesoscale convective system with swaths of damaging winds into the overnight hours.[48] The potential for a level 5/High risk was discussed by forecasters in the preceding 24 hours given "a rare combination of instability and shear" that was depicted by model guidance.[49] However, multiple uncertainties precluded a categorical upgrade, particularly questions about the influence of storms in Texas on the risk area farther north. A broad upper-level trough existed over the Western United States, with several embedded shortwaves, one of which was expected to translate across the risk area during the afternoon. A stationary boundary lifted northward as a warm front while a dryline sharpened from western Kansas into western Texas. In the warm sector between these boundaries, dewpoints rose into the upper 60s to even mid-70s °F, aiding in the development of extreme mixed-layer instability of 4,000–5,000 J/kg.[50][51] A particularly dangerous situation tornado watch was subsequently issued for portions of extreme northern Texas, much of Oklahoma, and south-central Kansas.[52] Over time, multiple supercells evolved across Texas and Oklahoma, but the convective evolution quickly became messy as splitting storms developed in close proximity.[53] Additional supercells evolved across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, but those too underwent negative interaction with left-split storms and their accompanying outflow approaching from the south.[54][55] To the north, a southeast-propagating mesoscale convective system developed across northern Kansas.[56] To the south, a discrete supercell developed within an extremely sheared environment north of the Dallas–Fort Worth metropolitan area, resulting in a fatal strong tornado.[57] Additional supercells across eastern Oklahoma, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas continued into the pre-dawn hours,[58] resulting in multiple intense and fatal tornadoes. A bowing mesoscale convective system evolved across the mid-Mississippi River Valley by sunrise.[59]

Confirmed tornadoes

Confirmed tornadoes by Enhanced Fujita rating
EFU EF0 EF1 EF2 EF3 EF4 EF5 Total
15 46 50 10 6 1 0 132+

Note: Five tornadoes have been officially confirmed but are not yet rated.

Nodaway–Corning–Greenfield, Iowa

Nodaway–Corning–Greenfield, Iowa
Meteorological history
FormedMay 21, 2024, 2:57 p.m. CDT (UTC−05:00)
DissipatedMay 21, 2024, 3:43 p.m. CDT (UTC−05:00)
Duration46 minutes
EF4 tornado
on the Enhanced Fujita scale
Highest winds175–185 mph (282–298 km/h)
Overall effects
Fatalities5
Injuries35+

A large, violent, multi-vortex tornado first touched down near the town of Villisca in Page County and moved northeastward, clipping the far northwestern tip of Taylor County before moving into Adams County. Continuing northeastward, the tornado crossed US 34 between Nodaway and Corning, toppling several wind turbines along this portion of the track, including one turbine that caught on fire. A woman died north of Corning when she was ejected from her car when it was lofted by the tornado while crossing Iowa 148.[60] The tornado continued northeastward and crossed into Adair County, reaching EF4 intensity for the first time in the southern part of the county as it moved over generally open terrain. It reached EF4 intensity again as it moved directly through and devastated Greenfield, where many homes were severely damaged or destroyed, including some that were flattened, vehicles were destroyed, and trees were stubbed.[7] At least four fatalities and 35 injuries were reported in the town.[6][61][7] The tornado then moved east-northeastward and dissipated over open terrain. A Doppler on Wheels measured winds of at least >250 mph (400 km/h), "possibly as high as 290 mph (470 km/h)" at 48 yards (44 m) above the surface.[62] Pieter Groenemeijer, the director of the European Severe Storms Laboratory noted that "on the IF-scale, 250 mph measured below 60 m above ground level is IF4 on the IF-scale, 290 mph is IF5."[63]

Valley View–Pilot Point, Texas

Valley View–Pilot Point, Texas
EF2+ tornado
on the Enhanced Fujita scale
Highest winds135 mph (217 km/h)+
Overall effects
Fatalities7
Injuries60+

This intense, destructive tornado caused catastrophic damage as it passed through Valley View and Pilot Point. A truck stop along I-35, which dozens of people had taken shelter in, was destroyed. To the east, a mobile home and RV park at the Ray Roberts marina in Valley View was devastated, with multiple fatalities being reported. 60+ injuries were confirmed by the Cooke County Sheriff. Preliminary information.[2][64]

Claremore–Pryor, Oklahoma

Claremore–Pryor, Oklahoma
EF3+ tornado
on the Enhanced Fujita scale
Highest winds136–165 mph (219–266 km/h)
Overall effects
Fatalities2

Major damage was reported in Claremore from this strong tornado. Pictures indicate that the tornado continued to Pryor, where two fatalities occurred. Preliminary information.[64][65] Preliminiary surveys indicate at least EF3 damage.[66]

Celina, Texas

Celina, Texas
EF3+ tornado
on the Enhanced Fujita scale
Highest winds165 mph (266 km/h)+
Overall effects
Fatalities0

An intense tornado touched down northeast of Celina, Texas. One particular neighborhood along Prairie Meadow Lane, just north of Celina sustained significant damage. At least 2 residences along this street sustained moderate to high-end EF3 damage with estimated maximum winds of 165 mph, with roofs and walls destroyed. Several additional homes sustained EF2 or EF1 damage along this street. The ratings for the two EF3 damage locations are preliminary, and subject to additional analysis in the next day or so.[67]

Impact

Iowa

Several people were killed and dozens injured in Greenfield, Iowa. Hospitals in the Adair County Health System were evacuated.[citation needed] Multiple fatalities and at least a dozen injuries have been confirmed. There is also a curfew in effect indefinitely, and authorities have limited traffic in and out of town.[68]

Southern United States

The May 25–26 severe weather outbreak killed at least 21 people in total, including seven in Texas, two in Oklahoma, eight in Arkansas, and four in Kentucky.[4][5] At least 14 of these deaths were due to tornadoes.

See also

Notes

References

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  62. ^ Wurman, Joshua; Kosiba, Karen (22 May 2024). "Very prelim analysis of DOW data show >250 mph peak winds, possibly high as 290, at 44 m (144 ft) above ground in Greenfield, IA. Tornado very intense & also very small, so worst winds were in narrow swath. Raw data from DOW7 (L); Prelim DOW-measured center path. POD blue dot (R)" (Post on 𝕏). 𝕏 (Formerly Twitter). University of Illinois: Doppler on Wheels. Archived from the original on 22 May 2024. Retrieved 22 May 2024.
  63. ^ Groenemeijer, Pieter (22 May 2024). "Impressive measurement! On the IF-scale, 250 mph measured below 60 m above ground level is IF4 on the IF-scale, 290 mph is IF5" (Post on 𝕏). 𝕏 (Formerly Twitter). European Severe Storms Laboratory. Archived from the original on 22 May 2024. Retrieved 22 May 2024.
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  66. ^ @NWSTulsa (May 26, 2024). "[2:40 PM 5/26/24] Updated information from the NWS Tulsa survey team - EF3 damage has been found east of Claremore north of Highway 20. The survey remains ongoing w/ additional details as they become available" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  67. ^ @NWSFortWorth (May 27, 2024). "Here's today wrap-up for yesterday's event. Tor #1: Long track tornado in Montague/Cooke/Denton Co: EF-2 (Max winds 135 mph) Tor #2: Collin Co near Celina: EF-3 (Max winds 165 mph) This information is preliminary, complete details will take days to be finalized!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  68. ^ Rood, Kyle Werner and Lee. "Deaths, extensive damage in Greenfield after a powerful tornado rips through town". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved 2024-05-22.