RealClearPolitics

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RealClearPolitics
RCP logo
Type of site
News aggregator, political commentary
Available inEnglish
OwnerRealClearInvestors and Crest Media
Created byJohn McIntyre, Tom Bevan
Key peopleTom Bevan (Publisher)
Carl M. Cannon (Executive Editor)
URLrealclearpolitics.com
CommercialYes
RegistrationOptional
LaunchedFebruary 3, 2000 (2000-02-03)[1]
Current statusOnline

RealClearPolitics (RCP) is an American political news website and polling data aggregator. The site was formed in 2000 by former options trader John McIntyre and former advertising agency account executive Tom Bevan.[2][3][4][5] The site features selected political news stories and op-eds from various news publications in addition to commentary from its own contributors.[6][3] The site is especially prominent during election season for its aggregation of polling data.[7][8][9] In 2008, the site's founders said their goal was to give readers "ideological diversity".[10]

Establishment[edit]

The website was founded in 2000 by McIntyre, a former trader at the Chicago Board Options Exchange, and Bevan, a former advertising agency account executive.[4] McIntyre explained "it really wasn't any more complicated than there should be a place online that pulled together all this quality information."[11] They call what they do "intelligent aggregation".[12] The site has grown in election-season spurts since it first went online. It has expanded from a two-man operation to a full-time staff of more than two dozen employees overseeing the company's mainstay, RealClearPolitics, as well as ten smaller sites.

Both co-founders graduated from Princeton in 1991. When they launched the site, they would both start their day at 4 a.m., looking through articles from more than 50 sources. They post pieces on current events and topics, as well as news about opinion polls. The site reports on political races and projections, and features the average result of all current presidential polls and also offers a best-guess projection of Electoral College votes.[4]

The site's poll average is a "widely referenced source". Major news outlets including CNN, Fox News, and the New York Times often cite its polling figures.[13]

Political orientation[edit]

2000 to 2017[edit]

RealClearPolitics, often referred to as nonpartisan by sources like The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, emerged as a significant platform during the 2008 elections.[14][15][16] Its founders, aiming to provide ideological diversity, curated political stories, op-eds, news analyses, and editorials to offer readers a balanced view of the political landscape.[17][10] The site's utility was recognized by figures such as Politico's executive editor Jim VandeHei, who called it an essential resource for political enthusiasts.[18] The Chicago Sun-Times in 2012 also acknowledged the site’s balanced selection of stories, and BuzzFeed’s top editor praised its polling average as highly reliable.[19]

The site has shown a conservative inclination in its content and commentary, as noted by various sources over the years.[20] In early interviews and articles, founders McIntyre and Bevan openly discussed their conservative viewpoints and criticism of mainstream media biases. A 2001 Princeton Alumni Weekly article highlighted their political leanings[6], and a 2004 Time article described the site's commentary section as "right-leaning."[21] By 2009, it was considered part of the conservative media spectrum, and academic texts have described it as run by conservatives while providing a range of opinion pieces. This blend of perceived nonpartisanship and conservative tendencies has shaped its reputation and influence in political discourse.[22][23]

2017 onward[edit]

In November 2020, The New York Times published an article alleging that since 2017, when many of its "straight-news" reporting journalists were laid off, RealClearPolitics showed a pro-Trump turn with donations to its affiliated nonprofit increasing, much from entities supported by wealthy conservatives.[24] RCP executive editor Carl Cannon rebutted the newspaper's allegations of such a rightward turn, saying that he had solicited donations from both conservative and liberal donors, without them "buying coverage".[25] Several journalists who talked to The New York Times in 2020 said they never felt any pressure from the site's founders to bias their stories.[24] Cannon stated that RCP regularly publishes perspectives from both liberal and conservative publications, saying that "the simple fact is that the amount of liberal material published in RCP every week dwarfs the annual conservative content in the New York Times".[25]

The New York Times also said that "Real Clear became one of the most prominent platforms for elevating unverified and reckless stories about the president's political opponents, through a mix of its own content and articles from across conservative media...." and that for days after the election, "Real Clear Politics gave top billing to stories that reinforced the false narrative that the president could still somehow eke out a win."[24] Cannon responded by highlighting 2 articles suggesting that "Trump could somehow eke out a win" on RCP's front page by noting that 374 articles had been covered on its front page between the time of the election and The New York Times article, including 16 articles from The New York Times itself.[25]

In 2016, RealClearInvestigations was launched,[26] backed by foundations associated with conservative causes, such as the Ed Uihlein Family Foundation and Sarah Scaife Foundation.[27] In 2019, the site published an article by a conservative author, Paul Sperry, containing the supposed name of a U.S. intelligence officer who blew the whistle on the Trump–Ukraine scandal.[27] The article's publication came as part of a month-long effort by Trump allies on media and social media to "unmask" the whistleblower, whose identity was kept confidential by the U.S. government, in accordance with whistleblower protection (anti-retaliation) laws.[27] Most publications declined to reveal the whistleblower's identity; Tom Kuntz, editor of RealClearInvestigations, defended the site's decision to publish the article.[27] Cannon stated that whistleblower protections did not ensure anonymity from journalism, instead guaranteeing protection from firing, prosecution, and professional punishment.[25]

Ownership[edit]

Forbes Media LLC bought a 51% equity interest in the site in 2007.[28] On May 19, 2015, RealClearInvestors and Crest Media announced that they had bought out Forbes's stake for an undisclosed amount.[29]

RealClearPolitics also owns RealClearMarkets, RealClearWorld, and RealClearSports.[30] RealClearMarkets and RealClearSports were launched in November 2007. RealClearWorld, the international news and politics site, was launched in August 2008. RealClearScience and RealClearReligion launched in October 2010.[31] RealClearHistory launched in 2012. In 2013, RealClearDefense was launched to cover military, intelligence, and veterans' issues.[32]

Original content[edit]

In addition to linking to external content, RealClearPolitics also provides original commentary and reporting, with a staff that includes White House reporter Philip Wegmann,[33][34] White House and national political correspondent Susan Crabtree,[35][36][37] associate editor and columnist A.B. Stoddard,[38][39] and columnist J. Peder Zane.

Former employees include Caitlin Huey-Burns,[40] Alexis Simendinger, James Arkin,[41] Mike Memoli, Kyle Trygstad, Reid Wilson, and Rebecca (Berg) Buck.

Political poll averaging[edit]

RealClearPolitics aggregates polls for presidential and congressional races into averages, known as the RealClearPolitics average, which are widely cited by media outlets. Both major presidential campaigns in 2004 said that the RCP polling average was the best metric of the race.[42] In 2008, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight said that RealClearPolitics was rigging its averages to favor Senator John McCain and other Republicans, although he later receded from this claim, indicating that his site and RCP had a friendly rivalry.[43] McIntyre denied having a conservative bent, saying that the site was a business and had "no interest in screwing around with that for partisan purposes".[43]

In 2012, Ben Smith, editor-in-chief of BuzzFeed, said "They are a huge force. Their polling average is the Dow Jones of campaign coverage."[19]

In 2016, Republicans performed 1.7% better than the final RealClearPolitics average,[44] and Republicans performed 3.3% better than the site's average in 2014.[45] In the 2016 presidential election, the final RealClearPolitics average margin overestimated Democrat Hillary Clinton's popular vote performance by 1.3%. The final electoral college prediction map produced by RealClearPolitics predicted the average outcome to be that she would narrowly win the election with 272 electoral votes. However, she lost the election to Republican Donald Trump despite winning the popular vote.[46] In 2018, the site underestimated the Democratic vote in the 2018 congressional elections by just over one percentage point.[47]

Right before Super Tuesday during the 2016 presidential primaries, Bevan called Super Tuesday for Donald Trump, telling The New York Times, "It will be a Trump tsunami" and predicting a Trump victory in every state holding a primary that day except for Texas.[48]

An article in The New York Times said that "top political analysts" raised concerns about RealClearPolitics polling averages influenced by polls skewing towards Trump and not adhering to "best practices like person-to-person phone interviews" during the 2020 presidential elections.[24] Cannon responded by noting that RCP's polling average in the election was off by 1.47 points in favor of Democratic candidate Joe Biden across 7 battleground states, compared to 4.87 points in favor of Biden for polling conducted by The New York Times.[25]

Public opinion[edit]

In 2018, RealClear Media launched RealClear Opinion Research, a public opinion polling group.[49] The group has conducted public opinion polls about school choice for the American Federation for Children,[50] the confirmation of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court for the National Catholic Register,[51] and civic education for the Jack Miller Center.[52]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "RealClearPolitics.com WHOIS, DNS, & Domain Info". WHOIS. Retrieved 2016-10-21.
  2. ^ "Polling Averages". RealClearPolitics.com. April 21, 2008. Retrieved 2008-04-21.
  3. ^ a b D'Agostino, Joseph A. (31 March 2003). "Conservative Spotlight: Real Clear Politics". Human Events. 59 (11): 16.
  4. ^ a b c Zorn, Eric (October 26, 2004). "Political site polls well with election junkies". Chicago Tribune: Metro, 1. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  5. ^ Wolinsky, Howard (September 18, 2006). "Politicking pays off: Web site a must-read for political fanatics". Chicago Sun-Times: 55.
  6. ^ a b Rob MacKay, "Political junkies create Web site for opinion and analysis" Archived 2017-07-01 at the Wayback Machine, June 6, 2001 Princeton Alumni Weekly. Princeton
  7. ^ Jones, Tim (2008-10-19). "Candidates come courting the Hoosiers". Los Angeles Times. ISSN 0458-3035. Retrieved 2017-01-22.
  8. ^ "Obama's surge swamps Hillary". 2008-02-10. Retrieved 2017-01-22.
  9. ^ "Obama cuts into Clinton's majority – US Election – smh.com.au". Smh.com.au. 9 April 2008. Retrieved 2017-01-22.
  10. ^ a b "On Web, Political Junkies Make a Real Clear Choice". The New York Sun. March 10, 2008. Archived from the original on 2015-06-06. Retrieved 2008-08-08.
  11. ^ Wolgemuth, Liz (December 12, 2007). "Political Junkies Spawn a Real, Clear Success". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved 2008-04-07.
  12. ^ "Real Clear Politics Real Clear on its Growth, Mission". The Chicago Tribune. February 7, 2008. Archived from the original on 2015-06-06. Retrieved 2008-04-07.
  13. ^ Greenberg, Kara (2023-01-24). "Understanding RealClearPolitics: The Go-To Site for Political News and Analysis". Road Trekin. Retrieved 2023-07-11.
  14. ^ Holmes, Elizabeth (24 October 2008). "Polls Show Race Tightening in Florida". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 3 May 2020.
  15. ^ Chozick, Amy (26 October 2008). "Candidates Focus on Western States". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 3 May 2020.
  16. ^ Knowlton, Brian (16 October 2008). "In projections, Obama holds electoral lead". The New York Times. Retrieved 3 May 2020.
  17. ^ Johnson, Steve (February 7, 2008). "Real Clear Politics real clear on its growth, mission". Chicago Tribune. Archived from the original on June 6, 2015. Retrieved April 7, 2008.
  18. ^ Johnson, Steve (February 7, 2008). "Real Clear Politics real clear on its growth, mission". Chicago Tribune. Archived from the original on June 6, 2015. Retrieved April 7, 2008.
  19. ^ a b "Popular, Chicago-based political news website run by two family guys". Chicago Sun-Times. 2012-05-30. Retrieved 2022-05-16.
  20. ^ Steffen Schmidt, Mack Shelley, Barbara Bardes, Cengage Advantage Books: American Government and Politics Today p. 140 Google. Cengage Learning, 2012
  21. ^ Stack, Patrick (October 14, 2004). "Cheat Sheet: Election Websites". Time. Archived from the original on October 16, 2004. Retrieved 2009-07-15. RealClearPolitics.com scores points for its in-depth, right-leaning commentary section
  22. ^ Richard Davis, Typing Politics: The Role of Blogs in American Politics p. 54 (2009) Oxford University Press Google.
  23. ^ Richard Davis, Politics Online: Blogs, Chatrooms, and Discussion Groups in American Democracy p. 43 (2013) Routledge Google.
  24. ^ a b c d Peters, Jeremy W. (2020-11-17). "A Popular Political Site Made a Sharp Right Turn. What Steered It?". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-12-20.
  25. ^ a b c d e "The New York Times vs. RealClearPolitics". Real Clear. April 4, 2024.
  26. ^ "A New Destination for Investigative Journalism". RealClearInvestigations. Retrieved 2019-11-12.
  27. ^ a b c d Isaac Stanley-Becker & Craig Timberg, Trump's allies turned to online campaign in quest to unmask Ukraine whistleblower, Washington Post (November 7, 2019).
  28. ^ "Forbes Media Acquires Fifty-One Percent Stake in RealClearPolitics.com". Forbes (Press release). November 7, 2007 – via Business Wire.
  29. ^ "Crest Media And Real Clear Investors Buy Remaining Stake In RealClearPolitics" (Press release). Crest Media. May 19, 2015 – via PRNewswire.com.
  30. ^ Gustafson, Colin (March 10, 2008). "On Web, Political Junkies Make a Real Clear Choice". The New York Sun. Retrieved 2008-08-08.
  31. ^ "New RealClear Sites Launching Today – Real Clear Politics – TIME.com". Archived from the original on October 18, 2010.
  32. ^ "RealClearDefense – Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls". Realcleardefense.com.
  33. ^ "Philip Wegmann". Linkedin.com. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  34. ^ "Philip Wegmann". Realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  35. ^ "Susan Crabtree". Realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  36. ^ "Susan Crabtree". Twitter.com. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  37. ^ "Susan Crabtree". Linkedin.com. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  38. ^ "A.B. Stoddard". The Bulwark. Retrieved 1 June 2022.
  39. ^ "A.B. Stoddard". Realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  40. ^ "Caitlin Huey-Burns". Business Insider. Retrieved March 15, 2021.
  41. ^ "James Arkin". C-SPAN. Retrieved March 15, 2021.
  42. ^ Zito, Salena (2022-10-23). "RealClearPolitics launches accountability project to preserve public trust in good polling". Washington Examiner. Retrieved 2023-06-29.
  43. ^ a b Becker, Bernie (2008-10-28). "Political Polling Sites Are in a Race of Their Own". The New York Times. Retrieved 2009-11-07.
  44. ^ "RealClearPolitics – Election Other – 2016 Generic Congressional Vote". Realclearpolitics.com.
  45. ^ "RealClearPolitics – Election Other – 2014 Generic Congressional Vote". Realclearpolitics.com.
  46. ^ "RealClearPolitics – Election 2016 – General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein". Realclearpolitics.com.
  47. ^ "RealClearPolitics – Election Other – 2018 Generic Congressional Vote". Realclearpolitics.com.
  48. ^ Williamson, Elizabeth (2016-03-01). "What the Polls Say About Super Tuesday and Beyond". The New York Times. Retrieved 2022-04-06.
  49. ^ "RealClear Opinion Research | RealClearPolitics". www.realclearmediagroup.com. Retrieved 2023-10-12.
  50. ^ "National Poll by RealClear Opinion Research Shows Strong School Choice Support". American Federation for Children. 2019-12-06. Retrieved 2023-10-12.
  51. ^ "EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research Poll No. 4 Finds Catholics Support Judge Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court". NCR. 2020-10-19. Retrieved 2023-10-12.
  52. ^ Zemaitaitis, Anna (2022-12-08). "Nationwide Parents' Poll on Civic Education - Jack Miller Center". Jack Miller Center -. Retrieved 2023-10-12.

External links[edit]

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